An IPO lottery looks like pure luck, and in a sense it is — but how you apply changes how many chances you get. None of what follows requires special knowledge.
Be realistic first. Winning is not easy. Popular listings are oversubscribed many times over, sometimes by a factor of hundreds. That is precisely why the strategy is to increase the number of times you take part, rather than to pick cleverly.
One listing is usually underwritten by several brokers at once, and each runs its own draw. Applying through each one multiplies your entries for the same company.
This is the single most effective thing you can do. Accounts are free to open and free to hold, so build up gradually, starting with brokers that do not require money upfront.
Where the draw is weighted by how many shares you applied for, more money genuinely means better odds. Where it is fully equal, everyone holds one ticket regardless.
While your capital is limited, build around the equal-draw brokers. That is where a small balance competes on level terms rather than being quietly outbid.
Listings with a lot of press attract crowds, and the odds get worse accordingly. Quieter listings are undersubscribed by comparison and easier to win.
But be careful with this one. Less popular listings are also more likely to open below their offer price, which means an immediate loss. Do not choose a company only because it is easier to get.
The lead underwriter on a listing receives an overwhelmingly larger allocation than the others. One ticket at a broker holding many shares is worth more than one ticket at a broker holding few.
When a listing interests you, check which broker is leading it. If you hold that account, always apply there.
Some brokers join the syndicate after the listing is approved, and their involvement is often not announced upfront. People miss these, which means fewer applicants and better odds for anyone who notices.
You cannot win a draw you did not enter. The application window is short — roughly a week from approval — so check the listing calendar regularly enough that nothing passes you by.
Most people do not win in their first several attempts, or their first dozen. Losing repeatedly is the normal experience, not a sign you are doing it wrong.
What matters is applying consistently. The more draws you are in, the more the odds accumulate in your favour. There is no need to rush or to overextend.
Check which listings are currently open for applications and enter one.
Nothing here is investment advice. Shares can and do open below their offer price.
この記事の日本語版を見る →