How this site is made

Plenty of sites cover Japanese IPOs. Few say where their numbers come from, how often their forecasts are right, or what they leave out. This page explains how this site is built, in a form you can check.

Who runs the site is covered separately. English overview →

Dates, market, share counts, the indicative range and the offer price come from the Japan Exchange Group's new-listing disclosures and from the securities registration statement (prospectus) each company files. On approval day we publish only what those two sources already show.

The first traded price is recorded from the exchange on listing day, together with the closing price. Financial figures come from the company's earnings releases and IR material, rounded to millions of yen. Every figure is matched against two independent sources before publication; anything that cannot be confirmed is left out.

First-day changes, profit per 100 shares, win rates and the breakdowns by market and deal size are computed on the fly from the offer price and the first traded price. Nothing is copied by hand, so the listing pages and the summary pages can never disagree.

Listings with no public offering — technical listings, spin-offs, direct listings — are not covered: there is no lottery to enter and no first-day sale to make. REITs, infrastructure funds and the professional-investor markets such as TOKYO PRO Market are excluded for the same reason.

Past listings are complete for 2024 and 2025 and do not go further back. 2026 is added listing by listing as approvals come in.

Win rates and breakdowns by year are here. 2025 by the numbers →

Forecasts start from a mechanical baseline, not a hunch: the median first-day change of the twelve past listings on the same market segment with the closest deal size. That median decides the direction — above or below the offer price — and the range never straddles the offer price. On the upside the range is wider for smaller deals (up to 2× the offer price under ¥1 billion, 1.5× at ¥3 billion and above); on the downside it sits between 85% and 100% of the offer price, because listings that fall cluster around −7%.

Going against the baseline requires a reason written into the forecast in numbers — deal size, the share of secondary selling, recent results in the same sector. When the evidence is thin, no forecast is published.

A forecast is frozen on the second morning after the offer price is set and is not edited afterwards, even before listing. That closes the loophole of fixing a forecast at the last minute: what you see is the forecast as it stood when applicants had to decide.

After listing, the first traded price is compared with the range and the result is published as is — misses included. Forecasts recorded after listing day do not count.

Results since the rules were settled on 2026-09-23 are on the scoreboard, with direction and range scored separately. Forecasts, scored →

Brokers are compared with a lottery-odds score built from each firm's published rules: how the draw works, whether funds are required upfront, how many listings it handles, and its record as lead underwriter. The breakdown is always shown next to the score. It is a guide to the published rules from a beginner's point of view, not a probability of winning.

This site takes part in affiliate programmes with some brokers and may earn a fee when an account is opened through a link. Partner brokers are marked as recommended so they can be told apart. Fees do not change scores or rankings, and non-partner brokers are scored on the same basis.

Which brokers are partners is visible on the comparison page. Brokers, compared →

On weekdays, approvals, indicative ranges, offer prices and first traded prices are checked every fifteen minutes and published as soon as they are known. The listing page and the forecast go up on approval day; the company summary follows the next business day after a review that checks it against the registration statement.

Checking the figures, applying the forecast rules and deciding what to publish follow the rules on this page, and everything is matched against primary sources before it goes live. If you spot an error, please use the contact form.

Corrections and comments are welcome. Contact →