Win rate, first-day gains, and breakdowns by market and deal size for every IPO listed in 2025
Listings
65
Excluding REITs and TOKYO PRO Market
Opened above the offer price
82%
53 of 65
Average first-day change
+39.2%
First traded price vs offer price
Median first-day change
+27.5%
The middle listing; less swayed by outliers
Average result per 100 shares
+¥49,060
If sold at the first traded price; losers included
Past results do not predict future ones. First-day prices swing with demand and market mood, and some listings open below the offer price.
65 companies listed in 2025, and 53 of them (82%) opened above the offer price. The average first-day change was +39.2% and the median +27.5%; selling 100 shares at the first traded price would have returned +¥49,060 on average, losers included.
By market, Growth (41 listings) had the highest win rate at 88%, with an average change of +49.1%. The ranking of markets changes from year to year, so no market is a safe bet.
By deal size, small offerings (Under ¥500M, 9 listings) won 78% of the time versus 58% for large ones (¥10B and above, 12 listings). This is the rule of thumb that smaller deals open higher, checked against the actual numbers.
Even in a strong year, 10 listings opened below the offer price. See the list of those at the bottom of the page.
Bar height is the number of listings; the figure is the month's average change
Largest first. Win rate = share of listings that opened above the offer price
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 41 | 88% | +49.1% | +33.1% | +¥59,471 |
| Standard | 12 | 58% | +22.5% | +16.3% | +¥36,900 |
| Prime | 6 | 83% | +32.4% | +14.2% | +¥38,817 |
| Nagoya Next | 3 | 100% | +6.0% | +7.5% | +¥3,967 |
| Nagoya Main | 1 | 0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +¥0 |
| Sapporo Ambitious | 1 | 100% | +29.4% | +29.4% | +¥50,000 |
| Fukuoka Q-Board | 1 | 100% | +18.6% | +18.6% | +¥13,000 |
Based on the 65 of 65 listings with share data
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥500M | 9 | 78% | +60.6% | +10.4% | +¥73,989 |
| ¥500M–1B | 6 | 100% | +113.0% | +103.7% | +¥119,567 |
| ¥1–3B | 19 | 79% | +36.9% | +40.0% | +¥44,884 |
| ¥3–10B | 19 | 95% | +23.0% | +20.3% | +¥38,279 |
| ¥10B and above | 12 | 58% | +15.3% | +5.0% | +¥18,792 |
The cash needed to apply for one lot
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥50,000 | 5 | 100% | +85.2% | +94.8% | +¥28,220 |
| ¥50,000–100,000 | 14 | 71% | +26.2% | +12.1% | +¥20,679 |
| ¥100,000–200,000 | 32 | 81% | +45.9% | +30.0% | +¥62,731 |
| ¥200,000 and above | 14 | 86% | +20.4% | +19.6% | +¥53,636 |
Our own first-day forecasts are scored on the forecast scoreboard
