Win rate, first-day gains, and breakdowns by market and deal size for every IPO listed in 2024
Listings
86
Excluding REITs and TOKYO PRO Market
Opened above the offer price
74%
64 of 86
Average first-day change
+30.9%
First traded price vs offer price
Median first-day change
+26.5%
The middle listing; less swayed by outliers
Average result per 100 shares
+¥43,787
If sold at the first traded price; losers included
Past results do not predict future ones. First-day prices swing with demand and market mood, and some listings open below the offer price.
86 companies listed in 2024, and 64 of them (74%) opened above the offer price. The average first-day change was +30.9% and the median +26.5%; selling 100 shares at the first traded price would have returned +¥43,787 on average, losers included.
By market, Growth (64 listings) had the highest win rate at 83%, with an average change of +38.4%. The ranking of markets changes from year to year, so no market is a safe bet.
By deal size, small offerings (Under ¥500M, 5 listings) won 60% of the time versus 55% for large ones (¥10B and above, 11 listings). This is the rule of thumb that smaller deals open higher, checked against the actual numbers.
Even in a strong year, 19 listings opened below the offer price. See the list of those at the bottom of the page.
Bar height is the number of listings; the figure is the month's average change
Largest first. Win rate = share of listings that opened above the offer price
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 64 | 83% | +38.4% | +31.2% | +¥54,414 |
| Standard | 13 | 62% | +12.6% | +10.7% | +¥19,515 |
| Prime | 4 | 50% | +13.9% | +12.0% | +¥19,200 |
| Nagoya Next | 2 | 50% | +0.5% | +0.5% | −¥6,800 |
| Fukuoka Q-Board | 2 | 0% | -8.0% | -8.0% | −¥10,850 |
| Sapporo Ambitious | 1 | 0% | -7.3% | -7.3% | −¥12,000 |
Based on the 86 of 86 listings with share data
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥500M | 5 | 60% | +39.5% | +9.1% | +¥42,700 |
| ¥500M–1B | 18 | 89% | +46.5% | +32.4% | +¥68,644 |
| ¥1–3B | 33 | 85% | +37.1% | +33.4% | +¥51,388 |
| ¥3–10B | 19 | 58% | +9.7% | +1.4% | +¥20,474 |
| ¥10B and above | 11 | 55% | +19.6% | +25.0% | +¥21,073 |
The cash needed to apply for one lot
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥50,000 | 12 | 75% | +40.0% | +45.6% | +¥14,942 |
| ¥50,000–100,000 | 16 | 94% | +29.5% | +29.0% | +¥24,988 |
| ¥100,000–200,000 | 42 | 71% | +31.7% | +27.1% | +¥49,010 |
| ¥200,000 and above | 16 | 63% | +23.4% | +12.1% | +¥70,513 |
Our own first-day forecasts are scored on the forecast scoreboard
