Win rate, first-day gains, and breakdowns by market and deal size for every IPO listed in 2026
Listings
33
Excluding REITs and TOKYO PRO Market
Opened above the offer price
67%
22 of 33
Average first-day change
+28.0%
First traded price vs offer price
Median first-day change
+17.1%
The middle listing; less swayed by outliers
Average result per 100 shares
+¥26,227
If sold at the first traded price; losers included
2026 is still in progress: the figures change as more companies list (every IPO of the year is included, excluding REITs and technical listings with no public offering).
Past results do not predict future ones. First-day prices swing with demand and market mood, and some listings open below the offer price.
33 companies listed in 2026, and 22 of them (67%) opened above the offer price. The average first-day change was +28.0% and the median +17.1%; selling 100 shares at the first traded price would have returned +¥26,227 on average, losers included.
By market, Standard (12 listings) had the highest win rate at 67%, with an average change of +28.3%. The ranking of markets changes from year to year, so no market is a safe bet.
Even in a strong year, 11 listings opened below the offer price. See the list of those at the bottom of the page.
Bar height is the number of listings; the figure is the month's average change
Largest first. Win rate = share of listings that opened above the offer price
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 19 | 63% | +24.4% | +17.1% | +¥25,432 |
| Standard | 12 | 67% | +28.3% | +11.0% | +¥25,475 |
| Nagoya Next | 2 | 100% | +60.7% | +60.7% | +¥38,300 |
Based on the 33 of 33 listings with share data
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥500M | 2 | 100% | +60.7% | +60.7% | +¥38,300 |
| ¥500M–1B | 2 | 100% | +109.3% | +109.3% | +¥113,700 |
| ¥1–3B | 16 | 75% | +32.9% | +22.4% | +¥30,150 |
| ¥3–10B | 9 | 44% | +5.5% | -2.4% | +¥5,044 |
| ¥10B and above | 4 | 50% | +2.1% | -2.7% | +¥8,425 |
The cash needed to apply for one lot
| Listings | Win rate | Average | Median | Avg per 100 shares | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥50,000 | 3 | 67% | +9.2% | +1.6% | +¥2,033 |
| ¥50,000–100,000 | 13 | 77% | +42.3% | +36.1% | +¥27,192 |
| ¥100,000–200,000 | 13 | 54% | +24.0% | +11.8% | +¥32,415 |
| ¥200,000 and above | 4 | 75% | +8.7% | +10.8% | +¥21,125 |
Our own first-day forecasts are scored on the forecast scoreboard
